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Wednesday, April 27, 2005
One on One: Nothing But The Stats.
Did you think Miguel Tejada's 150 runs batted in were a fluke last year? Well, he has 25 RBI in 22 games in 2005. I know it is (really) early, but I still find it interesting that Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, and Hack Wilson are the only players ever to knock in 150 or more runs in consecutive seasons. Gehrig and Ruth each turned the trick three years in a row. Of note, these historical seasons were all turned in from 1929-1937.

If Tejada drives home 100 runs in 2005, he will tie Alex Rodriguez at six for the most consecutive years of reaching the century mark while playing shortstop. A 25-HR season will give the 2002 AL MVP six in a row, tying A-Rod and Cal Ripken, Jr. for second place one season behind Hall of Famer Ernie Banks.

Except for a downtick in 2003, Tejada's HR/AB ratio has gone up every year since his rookie season in 1997. The ironman shortstop is working on his fifth straight campaign of playing in every game and has played 159 or more games every year since 1999.
(The Baseball Analysts)

Prospectus Triple Play: Baltimore Orioles, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets.
In the Roberts-only division, Brian has already established his place. He's tied Dave Roberts (not the active one; follow the link) for most home runs in a month by a Roberts, and will try to knock off Leon (22 in 1978) for most home runs by a Roberts in one season. Nineteen of Dave's 21 homers in 1973 came in July, August and September, so Roberts will really have to get it in gear if he plans to have the best second half by a Roberts.

It's unlikely that the power surge is completely random--if four home runs in 641 at-bats represents Roberts' true ability, then the chance of him hitting at least seven in 69 at-bats is .00000028, or around one in 2.8 million. Roberts is 27, and may be developing some pop as his career peaks, but there's still a lot of luck in play here--Roberts is not going to finish the year with an 1187 OPS. Enjoy it while it lasts, O's fans.
(Baseball Prospectus)




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